The Fallout from Theo

Before delving into Bud Selig's time as commissioner, I thought I would recap the Theo Epstein saga that has since led me to create this blog. The saga started a whole week ago when, on Monday morning, after a weekend of reports that the Red Sox and Epstein were about to reach an agreement, Theo resigned as the General Manager of the Red Sox.

Boston fans, a group of which I am not a part, were outraged at the news. Many view Theo as the savior of the franchise and one of the key architects behind their first World Series victory since 1918. Furthermore, tales of a conflict between Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino and the young GM have since left many Red Sox fans wondering if there is now a worse boss in Major League Baseball than George Steinbrenner. An article from today's New York Daily News offers a comprehensive summary of what went down when and why. The main thrust is as follows:

As his contract expired this season, Epstein was deeply insulted by Red Sox offers that just doubled or tripled his $450,000-a year salary, believing he had accomplished management's three prime objectives - winning a title, making the team an annual contender and restocking the farm system - and was entitled to be baseball's best-paid GM.

An article in the Boston Globe last Sunday that was unflattering to Epstein and seemed sourced from the Lucchino camp appeared to be the last straw.

From this resignation emerged a wide variety of feelings from Red Sox Nation. Boston bloggers were despondent. Evan over at Firebrand, one of the premiere Red Sox blogs, offered his views in a fairly rational and well-written piece:

After my initial hatred of Dan Shaughnessy for apparently cementing Epstein's belief that he would not return to the Red Sox, that has dissapated somewhat. His column yesterday in the Boston Globe (in which he mentioned to feel free to run him out of town) was a very well-written article in my opinion and he makes the great point that Theo has got to be more mature and sensible than what we'’re saying he is. If he is running out of town because of a paragraph in a Shaughnessy article, it never was going to work out anyways.

That'’s not to say there aren'’t issues between Epstein and Lucchino - there are, and it was a contributing factor. But see, there were lots and lots of contributing factors to this decision.

Others weren't as forgiving or even-keeled about it. David Gassko over The Hardball Times had bitter words for the Red Sox ownership:

There was no reason to let the negotiations with Theo Epstein go this far. He should have been re-signed a long time ago. Let him name a number, and give it to him. That's smart business.

Unfortunately, we've come to learn who was driving all the smart business being done by the Sox, and that man is now one of millions unemployed. That's what Larry Lucchino and John Henry relegated him to. One of millions...This is the worst ownership group Boston has ever seen. At least Howard Frazee made some money from selling the Babe.

I wouldn't go so far in the critique as Gassko did. Sure, there are problems with the way Larry Lucchino approached the negotiations. Sure, John Henry probably should have stepped in sooner. But a certain level of sabermetric sentimentality combined with Red Sox fanaticism seems to have led Gassko to paint a black-and-white picture of the negotiations when shades of gray would be more appropriate.

At Baseball Prospectus, Theo's greatest supporters were not happy with the outcome either. Joe Sheehan in Prospectus Today from November 3 (Registration required.) noted that Theo is one of the best GMs in the game and the Red Sox are "worse today than they were a few days ago." He rejudgmentdgement on Lucchino and Henry, but it's hard to disagree with Sheehan's assessment. Over at Baseball Toaster, Will Carroll explored the sabermetric/Moneyball backlash in a rather lengthy piece. An addendum the next day bemoaned Theo's fate.

Outside of the stat community, two ESPN were less pessimistic. Jim Caple mocked the canonization of St. Theo:

Yes, Theo is an intelligent guy who did an excellent job as the general manager and he can probably do many other things very well in life. But he still was a baseball general manager for crying out loud, not the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staffs, the director of Habitat for Humanity or the guy who developed Google. I mean, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams just accomplished the exact same thing as Theo and with a much smaller payroll. And I don't see anyone anointing Williams as an irreplaceable genius.

Personally, I agree with a friend who thinks Epstein was simply smart enough to get out while he was still revered. With a questionable pitching staff, yet another Manny trade demand ("And this time I really mean it!") and a probable team makeover that does not involve Carson Kressley, the likeliest short-term direction for the Red Sox is down. Perhaps Theo shrewdly decided to leave now as a saint rather than wait until talk radio started complaining that he was a moron.

Bill Simmons, in a looong piece, looks at the overrated in-his-opinion Theo Epstein and decides life will go on.

Meanwhile, as life is going on, Theo says he'll be a general manager by this time next year. Does that mean he'll be one by this time next week? It's tough to tell. But I do think that means our dreams of Theo being the Commissioner may not come to fruition. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, according to Curt Schilling, will miss Theo Epstein. But while Lucchino and Henry may not have their Boy Wonder GM to fall back on, odds are against these two giving up completely on the sabermetric/traditional scouting meld they worked to develop in Boston. They have a farm system ready to give birth to young talent; they have a good enough crop of Major Leaguers and deep enough pockets to remain ever competitive atop the American League East.

As night falls on the Theo Epstein Era in Boston, it's hard to see the Red Sox getting that much worse as Gassko or even Sheehan proclaim. Someone else will step in and step up. The sun will rise on Red Sox Nation and the team will once again be ready to fight the Yankees (and Blue Jays in 2006) for the American League East crown.